By Arthur Piccolo
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Fri. April 27, 2012: The tide has turned.
Unlike when the Republicans were bashing each over the head Barack Obama’s prospects are not looking all that bright. We get wrapped up in the other side’s primary campaign because the media and the pundits do. All that wrestling doesn’t make all that much impression on voters. For two reasons most inside the Party battling whether Democrats 4 years ago or the Republicans this year most in the party will be loyal to who wins the nomination.
As well the voters who don’t feel any party loyalty and all those who are not members of either party could not care less about making a decision about who to vote for until after the summer ends. Or later, if they vote at all.
Not to say that most voters are oblivious to the earlier skirmishing. Let’s not forget our unconscious and our peripheral mental vision.
Both of which play a part in how we respond to anything not least
of all candidates for President. So right now all of the above is playing to Mitt Romney’s advantage. He has emerged from combat the victor and self confident, even exuberant. People like winners of all sort. He has now entered a period largely of self-control where he is in charge of his message. Unlike incumbent President who must live the job every day and has far less control over how they are perceived.
Yes incumbency has its advantages like The White House and Air Force One but most of all when the country is doing well, most Americans are satisfied with the Status Quo, the incumbent is generally liked, and there are few issues out there to cause dissent and make the incumbent an easy target for anxieties.
None of this is working for President Barack Obama right now.
Even the non-issue of Vice President candidates may be hurting Obama’s chances. Obama is stuck with Biden, Hillary would be even worse not that there is any chance. Biden himself is not a particular handicap for Obama except when he is compared to the running mate it is becoming clearer every day Mitt Romney is very likely to choose. Florida’s Marco Rubio.
Do I know it will be Rubio? Does Romney know for sure he will pick Rubio? Maybe not! But play the odds ladies and gentlemen of the electorate. The VP slot is Marco Rubio’s to lose. That is another problem for Obama. No matter what some polls say it definitely does give Romney a big advantage with swing voters in very important swing state of Florida. Florida, which once again may decide this election!
Next, while all Latinos and other minorities are certainly not Cuban as Rubio is, and there may not be a strong common united Latino identity, he still makes Romney look much better with non-whites.
The first Latino Vice Presidential candidate. So yes Obama is African American and he is President not VP this is not about the African American vote which Obama will get it is about the Latino vote that is not solidly Democrat.
But put the ethnicity aside. Rubio has a bigger plus his good looks and youthfulness in comparison to Biden even Obama who no longer comes across as a youth candidate Rubio does. So again, another potentially important psychological advantage for Romney the young, good looking Latino running mate from all important Florida who in addition makes a very good impression with both men and dare I say women. Am I suggesting voters are shallow?
I have to keep returning to the REAL election for President commentary after commentary. It is the REAL election. It is unclear this early how many swing states there will be this year but somewhere between 8–12+ states that have a history of potentially going either way by close margins are where the REAL election will take place. To make the point the election could be cancelled in about 40 states and it would not change the results at all. We already know which way the vast majority of states and their Electoral College votes will go. Those that will “automatically” go to Obama and those that are just as certain to go to Mitt Romney.
Right now the swing states advantage goes to Romney. Because he will come across as an attractive candidate without Obama’s baggage and with a nationally attractive Vice President running mate. The swing voters will have no problem seeing Mitt Romney in The White House.
As for Rubio unless something changes he is the “perfect” running mate he will look very good with an outstanding resume and the always sought after poor kid who makes good story better poor immigrant and without over shadowing the Presidential candidate. You might even call Rubio the prefect VP candidate which makes you wonder will something unexpected come up?
The very latest news on the economy is also not helping Obama.
The so called good new about jobs seems to be deteriorating. Even more unlikely that the jobs economy will be soaring getting way better between now and November which Obama could sure use.
If you put all of this together and more, as I wrote last week, this adds up to the election being a referendum on Obama as much as he and his campaign will try and pin Romney as an extremist and make the election about him. One more time the problem is that will work fine in the normally Democratic states but who cares
Obama is going to win those states anyway.
It’s in the swing states with “too many” voters from Obama’s perspective who don’t buy into those labels and are looking for a reason to vote against the incumbent that is where the problem lies.
Obama needs a message that works if he is going to pull those states to his side and win re-election. Or as the Financial Times headline put it this week “Obama must find a lasting theme or lose the election.”
That is a problem for Obama for two reasons finding such a message and even if he does his believability. Obama the President in 2012 is not Obama the candidate in 2008. Obama has effectively been exposed as a typical wishy washy Democratic President. That does not instill voter appreciation in those who are not hard core Democrats. Again who are they the SWING voters who will decide this election. You can also label swing voters cynical if you like. Not terminally cynical the close to 50% of Americans who don’t vote at all.
But the casually cynical swing voters who do vote are often more of a problem for incumbents than challengers since cynics are more likely to vote against what they don’t like and in favor of what they don’t know. That is how Obama won. Romney may well be their victim in 2016 but this is about now 2012.
Obama is trying to run on fairness and being more in tune with average Americans than rich Mitt Romney. But the swing voters don’t see Obama as some struggling working guy or gal like them as much as Obama tries to paint himself that way like falsely claiming he was troubled and burdened by student loans.
REALITY CHECK Barack! Go back and read his autobiography not a word about any student loans too inconsequential in his life for him to even bother writing about them. Did he even have any?
Here is an even better example why Obama can’t play the identity card with middle class swing voters. This from The New York Times says a lot about the REAL Obama …
This is from the April 20, 2012, NY Times style section titled “White Gloves Not Needed.” Superficially it is a story about the Obama’s White House social secretary but it is the following lines that say so much about the Obamas’ .. QUOTE …
“Now more than a year into what has become a massive event planning
job for the most famous couple in the world, Mr. Bernard, 50, has played a crucial but largely silent role managing some of the biggest, showiest parties in the history of the White House.”
Encore please … under the Obamas’ QUOTE ..“Managing some of the biggest, showiest parties in the history of the White House.”
That is 200 years of White House history and with some of the most pampered, self-centered “residents” possible the Obamas’ come in FIRST for operating the most luxurious White House ever. Give them an award. No more years?
So much for Obama and the Common Man and Woman.
Anything can happen. Obama might bomb Iran if he thinks he will lose and play the Commander in Chief Savior of the Nation card or try to. Mitt Romney might implode. An asteroid might hit the South and vaporize all those Republican states.
But the fact is President Barack Obama is a Political Fraud. And that is his biggest problem. WHERE. One more time everyone together in the 8-12+ all important SWING states where the election will be decided.
I for one am not disappointed. After 4 years of Republican BS better yet control Congress as well. After 4 years of screwing the middle class and the poor and sucking up to the richest Americans at everyone else’s expense like never before since before the Great Depression maybe the Democrats and the nation will be ready for a REAL Change Master not another Con Man in 2016.
This week’s graphic is the cover of a book about Obama from back in 2008 before he won. It is by some right wing ideologue but the book itself is more about making the case Obama is (2008) not what he seemed he was / is just a standard issue Chicago type modern version of a machine politician and right he is!
About The Writer: Arthur Piccolo is a professional writer and commentator and often writes about Latin America for New Americas.