News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Fri. Aug. 10, 2012: So again this week with the election over already I am trying to keep writing interesting commentaries to the bitter end – November.
Since Romney has almost no chance of winning he needs something anything to change the dynamics.
In desperation his upcoming VP choice takes on that role.
Romney will probably make his announcement this weekend or early next week. It should be the easiest and most important decision he will make if he wants to pull off a miracle victory come November an election which seems beyond his grasp.
The math is painfully simple for Romney.
His only hope is to win Florida in any possible scenario in which Romney beats Obama. There is absolutely not any scenario that works for Romney is he loses Florida. You can claim the importance of any of the other swing states that might go either way based on current polls. None of them come close to Florida in importance for Romney. Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
Here is the brutally simple math.
Romney could somehow win every other swing state but if he loses Florida to Obama then Romney still loses the election. There is no other swing or if you prefer battleground state that has that same necessity for Mitt Romney. The biggest of all swing states!
So the point of this commentary is more than obvious. Mitt Romney has only one logical choice for VP Florida’s Marco Rubio. Not Pawlenty, not Jindal, not Portman, not Christie, not even America’s new sweetheart Gabby Douglas.
Right now as I write The New York Times – big, big Obama supporters – are pushing the worst possible choice for Romney – but great for Obama – Paul Ryan whose choice will insure not only a Romney loss but a landslide loss as the entire election becomes about the draconian changes Ryan’s budget proposals would bring.
Marco Rubio is Mitt Romney’s only Hail Mary Pass.
How valuable is it to a presidential candidate to choose a running mate from a particular state? Usually 1% to 2% in the Vice Presidential candidate’s home state often nothing elsewhere.
So guess in Mitt Romney’s world, 1 – 2 percent more votes in Florida on election day is PRICELESS. If he is to win Florida that is his likely margin of victory – just 1 – 2 percent.
Here is another signal Rubio is Romney’s best choice. Something that is obvious but still escapes most observers. Democratic pundits are all writing about how bad a choice Rubio would be for Romney. How literally any other name being mentioned is better for. That is a sure sign Rubio is Romney’s best man.
A perfect example of this phenomenon appeared Wednesday in The New York Times. A supposedly neutral political commentator Nate Silver wrote a lengthy blog post on The Times Website to let the Republicans know how bad a choice Marco Rubio would be for Romney. The post bordered on the comical with the convoluted “logic” Silver tied to use to make his case against Rubio.
Nate Silver starts out fine in his Times post ….
“Mr. Romney should not expect any miracles from his choice of a running mate. Historically, they have gained their ticket a net of two percentage points, give or take, in their home states.”
That is true and to Romney’s advantage in choosing Rubio.
But then Silver descends to this bizarre statement …
“If Mr. Romney can’t win Florida on his own — without Mr. Rubio’s help — things are probably fairly hopeless for him no matter what.”
Really? How about this Mr. Silver? Again if Romney does not win Florida he can’t win no matter what else he does.
Leaving this Times paid bloggers skewed analysis in the dumpster where it belongs Marco Rubio does more for Romney than any other VP candidate possibly can. More than just giving him the best chance to win Florida …
Let me list them …
1) Republican Convention is in Tampa, FLORIDA. Marco Rubio’s home state which means his choice will energize the convention and make a more positive impression on viewers and pundits than it would otherwise with boring Romney as the other focal point.
More significantly ..
2) Rubio is a Latino. Romney desperately needs to do better among Latino voters. While many will not flock to Rubio a Cuban American he will have more positive impact on Latino voters than any other VP choice. Adding to that impact, Rubio is fluent in Spanish and will go around the country speaking to Latino voters with a natural advantage other do not have.
3) Marco Rubio offers a clear positive contrast to 60s something Mitt Romney. We live in a youth culture. Youth sells well especially among the young but likewise among many older Americans who want to identify with youth not age. Rubio at 41 will clearly be the youngest candidate in the field and make even 51-year-old Barack Obama look like an old President in comparison. As for contrasting Rubio with Biden it is stark.
4) Marco Rubio has an attractive immigrant family narrative as his life story. Fleeing Cuba with his parents as poor and emerging from a lower income background to gain a stellar education and the rise quickly in Florida politics becoming the Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives at 33. Then being elected the youngest U.S. Senator in the United Sates Congress today.
5) Rubio’s rhetorical skills. He is a high quality, high energy public speaker again a very useful contrast to Mitt Romney’s boring style. Likewise Rubio handles the media well.
And certainly not least ….
6) The Republican base is enamored of Marco Rubio. Romney needs to do everything possible to energize the base in terms of fund raising, volunteering and coming out to vote if he is to pull off the political miracle of a lifetime and beat Obama. With a likeable choice Rubio not the abrasive Paul Ryan who is a right wing lightning rod for too many non-Republican voters.
One more ….
7) Regardless of what Democratic operatives say about Rubio being a poor choice to try and spin the story, in fact Rubio’s choice will at latest modestly deflate Democratic optimism because no doubt they have internally come to the same conclusion I have Marco Rubio does more than anyone else to give Romney a boost, be it a slight chance, to prevail in November.
The result of all this is when you contrast any and every other potential Romney pick for Vice President there is no comparison. Romney must win Florida. Rubio does more to improve that prospect than any other choice. That would all by itself be the reason to pick Rubio. But Marco Rubio also brings far more positive energy to the Romney ticket than anyone else can.
Marco Rubio is the quintessential perfect choice in an election for President for the trailing candidate who has little or no personal appeal and who absolutely must win one state in particular and who more generally must make inroads into a very influential voting group Latinos in all the swing states.
Now ironies of ironies and consistent with this analysis many Obama leaning pundits point out what they call Rubio’s biggest “flaw” that Marco Rubio is so clearly superior to Romney as an ideal candidate that he out shine Mitt Romney.
Yes absolutely Marco Rubio will outshine Romney. Here in the Real World that is the Dream VP Choice for Romney under his dire current circumstances. Romney desperately needs to take the focus off his unfavorables. Liven his campaign’s image.
The idea being circulated by Obama supporters is that Romney will not pick Rubio because he does not want a better looking running mate who will get more attention than Romney is preposterous. That crazy analysis is effect that Romney would prefer to lose the election and NOT become President if it means he must have a more popular running mate.
Here is the Real Deal.
If Romney somehow wins, he not Rubio becomes President with all that power and Rubio is reduced to being what Vice Presidents are assistants to the President of the United States who have nothing to do except whatever the President wants them to do. Even better for Romney, is for Rubio to follow him as President in 8 years and still just approaching 50. Then Rubio needs Romney to be happy with his VP and keep him on the ticket in 2020.
So enough said, Marco Rubio is Mitt Romney’s Dream Choice.
Is it possible Romney will not choose Rubio?
Yes if Romney wants to make it absolutely sure he will lose.
Hail Mary full of ….. Marco Rubio!
EDITOR’S NOTE: Arthur Piccolo is a contributing writer to News Americas.