From Boom To Cooldown: IMF Slashes 2025 Caribbean Growth Forecast After Record Year

News Americas, New York, NY, April 22, 2025: The International Monetary Fund, (IMF) is now forecasting a marked economic slowdown for the Caribbean in 2025, projecting regional growth to decline to 4.2%, down sharply from a remarkable 12.1% surge in 2024.

Tourists board a Tropic Air plane at the Sir Barry Bowen Municipal Airport in Belize City on April 17, 2025. (Photo by JOSE A. SANCHEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

This latest outlook, published in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report, attributes the earlier boom to a strong post-pandemic rebound in tourism, which is now beginning to normalize. The revised forecast comes amid broader concerns about slowing global growth tied to rising trade tensions driven by new U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump.

The IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, emphasized the impact of these policies, stating that “the global economic system that has operated for the past 80 years is being reset,” citing historically high U.S. tariff rates and a rise in policy uncertainty.

Despite the slowdown, several Caribbean nations are still expected to record solid growth, albeit at more modest levels than in 2024. Guyana remains a standout performer, with a projected 10.3% GDP growth in 2025, though that’s a steep drop from the astonishing 43.6% recorded in 2024.

Caribbean GDP Growth Forecasts for 2025 (Highest to Lowest)

Country | GDP Growth Forecast (%) – 2025
Guyana | 10.315
Dominica | 4.22
Dominican Republic | 4.021
Grenada | 3.892
Suriname | 3.202
Belize | 3.218
Barbados | 3.000
Antigua and Barbuda | 3.048
St. Lucia | 3.035
St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 4.7
Guatemala | 4.1
Aruba | 2.2
Jamaica | 2.1
St. Kitts and Nevis | 1.964
Trinidad and Tobago | 2.367
The Bahamas | 1.8
Haiti | -1.0

Tourism, remittances, and economic ties with the U.S. continue to support the region, though the general slowdown in global trade is dampening momentum.

In contrast, Haiti remains in economic distress, with the IMF forecasting a continued contraction of -1% in 2025, though this marks an improvement from -4.2% in 2024.

Meanwhile, Latin America’s overall growth is also projected to slow to 2.0% in 2025 from a previously estimated 2.5%, with Mexico seeing a negative forecast of -0.26% next year.

The Caribbean, while still projected to grow, must now navigate a more uncertain global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics.