Potential Impacts of a Trump 2024 Presidency on Latin America and the Caribbean

Commentary By Ron Cheong

News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Weds. Oct. 13, 2024: The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, with Republican control of the Senate and likely the House, is expected to bring sweeping heavy handed changes.

These include staffing his administration with like minded people and purging professional staffing at government agencies, including the military, justice department, law enforcement, foreign trade, taxation, healthcare and social services while replacing them with officials whose primary loyalty is to Trump.

We survived Trump 1.0; soon it will be time to face Trump 2.0 on steroids – and without guardrails.

It will be an authoritarian, isolationist, heavy handed, America-First, uncompassionate, transactional, pro-wealthy, quid-pro-quo, anti-immigrant, anti-China, tariff imposition, “drill baby drill” administration.  Even more surreal, it will be headed by a convicted felon, insurrectionist and admirer of dictators – all in what we understood to be the world’s greatest democracy.

Migrants

The Caribbean and Latin America are likely to be among the first to feel the pain if his promised deportation of “23” million undocumented workers starting on “Day 1” gets rolling; with these countries struggling to absorb the inflow, not to mention the distress of family separations in the US.

His border wall will come back into focus, and Mexico, now the largest exporter to US to the tune of around US US$600 billion, could face punitive tariffs to bring them to heel.  At a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, he pledged to implement a 25% tariff on Mexico if they didn’t assist in reducing migration to the US.  He said that would be sure to work or he would increase the tariff to 50%, then 75%. Trump has also vowed to levy a 100% tariff on cars produced in Mexico. Mexico is the 2nd largest car manufacturer in this hemisphere.

Venezuela is also at the top of the list. Trump repeatedly riled his MAGA following and terrified other Americans that Venezuela had emptied their jails and asylums and sent the criminals to the US.  How the mercurial transactional Trump deals with that falsehood to the satisfaction of his believers is anybody’s guess.  He could ratchet up sanctions, or given his transactional nature, he could strike a deal with Nicolas Maduro to take back some of the estimated 600,000 refugees in the US in exchange for allowing more Venezuelan oil onto the world market.

Tariffs & China

China, which is viewed as using Mexico as a backdoor to the US market, is also set to pay dearly.  China is the main car supplier to Mexico with their cheap EVs being very popular.  One Chinese manufacturer’s EVs sell for about half the price of the cheapest Tesla.  And the leading Chinese manufacturer BYD had been considering setting up their new auto plants in Mexico.

The impact on other Latin American countries will vary depending on how friendly or unfriendly they are to Trump. Equally important will be how receptive they have been to China’s diplomatic and economic engagement through the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, (CELAC).  China’s financing to Caribbean and Latin America nations, (LAC), reached US $136.5 billion between 2005 and 2022, with the main recipients being Venezuela, ($60 bn), Brazil, ($30 bn), Ecuador, ($18.2 bn), and Argentina, ($17 bn).

After decades of neglect of the region by the US, Vice-President Kamala Harris started an initiative last year in part to counter the growing Chinese influence. The initiative’s stated goal is to improve the regional food and energy sufficiency. It is complimented by the PACC 2030 partnership with the US on adapting to and moderating climate change, which aligns with the Paris Agreement, to which the US is a signatory, and the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to achieve, “peace and prosperity for people and the planet.”

Guyana, which is 85% covered by forest, has long been a leader in environmental conversation with its Low Carbon Development Strategy. With its recently discovered oil, abundant arable land and an average annual deforestation rate of 0.053%  since 2018, the country is a lynch pin in the initiatives.  Trump has an entirely different opinion on climate change and it remains to be seen how that plays out.

Cuba is likely to see most of Obama’s liberalizations it gained reversed once Trump takes power. The country is already reeling from island-wide blackouts lasting for days at a time as a result of their critical energy shortage.  To add to their troubles, the island was hit by a 6.8 magnitude hurricane on Sunday.

Oil

Oil may play a bigger role than first appears on the surface.  One would presume Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Suriname would find favour with Trump.

In 2020, during the previous Trump administration, the US, through its Ambassador to Guyana Sarah Lynch, now Deputy to the Commander at SOUTHCOM,  and then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, played a pivotal role in preserving the country’s democracy when the previous incumbent resisted handing over power after the election.

Since then, there has been a strengthening of relations between the two governments with the US throwing its support behind Guyana against Venezuela’s illegitimate claim to two-thirds of its territory.  The two countries since have carried out joint military manoeuvres and increased cooperation against drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption.  The expectation is that this cooperation and territorial support would continue.  But like all things Trump, nothing is ever certain.  It is conceivable that the transactional Trump could strike some sort of deal with Maduro.

At the moment, however, things look to be in Guyana’s favour, and its government has said it is looking forward to continuing the working relationship of Trump 1.0.  Although Venezuela has the worlds largest oil reserves at 298 billion barrels, its oil is low quality and difficult and expensive to work.  Guyana on the other hand, which is ranked 17th in the world with about 11 billion barrels and growing, produces high quality oil categorised as medium sweet – a good incentive for Trump to maintain support for Guyana which has fast become a significant supplier to world markets, and perhaps even encourage speeded up production.

In addition, it is known that Elon Musk, adviser to Trump on all things and beneficiary via Tesla if Trump levies tariffs on EV’s from Mexico, recently did a teleconference with Guyana’s president Dr. Irfaan Ali; which raises the possibility that apart from Guyana’s oil, there could be an interest in regard to SpaceX.  Guyana is located close to the equator where the 1,000 MPH rotation imparts an extra boost to rockets launched from that location.

But there is no doubt the Caribbean and Latin America region will face many challenges under Trump 2.0 and will have to brace itself for the unexpected. But as the saying goes: “Life goes on.”