Only One Caribbean Economy Is Forecast To Grow This Year

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News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Tues. June 9, 2020: COVID-19 is set to plunge the global economy into the worst recession since World War II the World Bank said Monday, and the Caribbean will not be exempt, with only one regional nation forecast to grow economically this year.

The World Bank, in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday, said the Caribbean is projected to experience a 3.1 percent contraction this year, if excluding Guyana, and a 1.8 percent contraction if Guyana is included.

That’s because the South American CARICOM nation, despite its election brouhaha and drop in oil prices globally, is the only regional country forecast to grow this year, with the World Bank report putting growth at 51.1 percent this year.

However, the country is also forecast to see a huge drop off by next year, with growth projected by only 8.1 percent.

Falling tourism activity and remittance inflows have been blamed on the contraction in other Caribbean economies this year, the report’s analysts said.

The Dominican Republic is forecast to see just a .8 percent drop off this year and rebound next year to 2.5 percent growth, despite its challenges with thousands of coronavirus cases and the region’s highest death tally.

Belize, is, however, set to feel the brunt of the economic fallout, with the World Bank forecasting a -13.5 economic decline this year. But its economy is projected to rebound to 6.7 percent growth next year.

Grenada is projected to see the second highest drop-off this year of -9.6 percent, but rebound by next year to 6.5 percent, according to the data.

Saint Lucia is forecast to see the third worst regional decline this year, with the report showing a -8.8 percent drop. But it is forecast to rebound to 8.3 percent growth next year.

Jamaica is set to see a decline of -6.2 percent this year, the fourth highest drop for the region, and rebound to only 2.7 percent growth next year.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will see a -5.5 percent drop-off this year and rebound to a four percent growth next year while Suriname is set to see a decline of -5.0 percent this year and rebound to 3 percent growth next year.

Dominica is forecast to see a -4 percent drop, but likely make up for it in 2021 with a 4 percent growth.

Haiti, meanwhile, is set to see losses of -3.5 percent this year and rebound to just a 1 percent growth next year.

Giving a wider forecast for both Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank analysts said the regions are projected to suffer not only the largest growth decline of the six regions of the world, but also its deepest recession of the past sixty years.

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