News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Fri. Aug. 7, 2020: Allow me to introduce Professor Allan Lichtman ……
Who is the focus of this episode. Until yesterday I had no idea who he was. My readers probably do not know either. Now I do because of The New York Times, my frequent media “partner” here in Trump’s America.
According to the Times Wednesday, Professor Lichtman is a legendary predictor of Presidential elections and The Times claims he is the ONLY professional predictor who picked Donald Trump to win in 2016. The Times has in fact crowned Lichtman the Nostradamus of Presidential elections!
What you will learn only here is my STARTLING claim about Lichtman.
I am not going to bother “fact checking” The Times which is a policy I normally subscribe to as well as of course subscribing to The Times itself.
Unfortunately, The Times does not agree to be my media partner for free!
Anyway, their story is too good as material for this episode for me to bother investigating Professor Lichtman’s full record. It is absolutely factual – he did predict Trump would win in 2016 and it is also fact he just made a new prediction for this 2020 Presidential election. Which to no surprise, The Times is highlighting Lichtman predicts Joe Biden will win. Everyone does.
What is so, so interesting is how and maybe why he did so. Most of all, why his 13 keys by his own standard should have led to a different conclusion. And the fact he may not have done Joe Biden a favor picking him to win.
What you should enjoy is that none of this will prepare you for my analysis of Professor Lichtman’s analysis, which you should find fascinating. It is what The Times should have told its readers but did not but …
SURPRISE! They did publish my comment which I will reprint at the end of this episode. Right now, here are Lichtman’s 13 KEYS he uses to predict Presidential elections and why he predicts Biden wins 7-6 in 2020.
Professor Lichtman has gone so far as to write a book titled: “The Keys to The White House.” He is all in on his 13 keys. Also know President Trump is so impressed, he sent him a signed framed thank you for his 2016 prediction!
It’s time to get to THE KEYS …
Key #1 – Who won the 2018 midterm elections? The Democrats.
ONE point for Joe Biden in 2020.
Key #2 – Is there a primary battle for the incumbent President?
ONE point for Donald Trump in 2020.
Key #3 – Is the incumbent President running for re-election?
TWO points for Donald Trump.
Key #4 – There is no serious 3rd party candidate for President.
THREE points for Donald Trump.
Key #5 – Is the short-term American economy good?
TWO points for Joe Biden.
Key #6 – Can U.S. look forward to a strong long-term economy?
THREE points for Joe Biden.
This is getting exciting. IT’S A TIE SO FAR!!
Key # 7 – Incumbent President made major changes to national policy.
FOUR points for Donald Trump.
Key #8 – Is the current White House tainted by scandal?
FOUR points for Joe Biden.
Key #9 – The current President has no foreign or military failures.
FIVE points for Donald Trump.
This is becoming a NAIL BITER. Be careful; don’t hurt yourselves!
Key #10 – Has the current President had a major foreign success?
FIVE points to Joe Biden.
Key #11 – Is the Presidential challenger charismatic?
SIX points for Donald Trump.
Key #12 – Is the current President charismatic?
SIX points for Joe Biden.
We are down to the FINAL key. Call it the bottom of the 9th. Call it the last basket at the buzzer. Call it the desperation pass as time runs out. Call it anything you want, but it is THE FINAL KEY to who wins The White House.
Key #13 – There is no social unrest during the incumbent’s term.
SEVEN points for Joe Biden. Biden wins 7-6????????
WHAT??????? How does all the recent social unrest favor Biden????
Looks like Professor Allen Lichtman has been BOUGHT OFF. Looks like we now have a political SCANDAL here. Here is why … READ my published comment printed in The Times to their credit ….
“Allan Lichtman undermines his credibility from last election with this video and his current analysis. He calls it 7-6 in Biden’s favor based on his 13 keys to the election. Logically 7-6 where just one of these subjective keys switched to Trump would have changed the result should mean “too close to call.”
“In fact his analysis undermines polls overwhelmingly favoring Biden. Based on t polls Lichtman’s 13 keys should have favored Biden 9-4 or at least 8-5.”
“Finally, very questionable is Lichtman giving Biden the point for “social unrest.” All these demonstrations could just as easily favor Trump among independent voters in Swing States who feel threatened by this “social unrest” and may vote for Trump as a result. Lichtman should have awarded that key to both of them or neither of them resulting in a “tie” based on his system or even more “too close to call.”
THAT IS THE REAL KEY HERE. The Professor clearly blew his credibility awarding Joe Biden the key for social unrest. It makes absolutely no sense. But if he awarded it to Trump not only would there have been NO NY Times article and video for Lichtman he would have been SAVAGED by Democrats while Trump would have used it to his tremendous advantage in ads.
PROFESSOR LICHTMAN PREDICTS TRUMP WIN AGAIN! It would have been the lead story on Fox News for weeks to come.
HERE IS THE TRUTH Lichtman will not admit but which his useful analysis predicts …
TOO CLOSE TO CALL … that is a very useful message for Joe Biden!
(This series dedicated in honor of the late Liu Xiaobo & Jamal Khashoggi)