By NAN Business Editor
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Tues. Dec. 16, 2025: The outlook for Caribbean growth for 2026 and 2027 points to a widening divide between resource-driven growth and tourism-dependent economies, according to new projections from the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, (ECLAC) and the World Bank.
ECLAC forecasts average growth of 8.2% for the Caribbean in 2026, largely driven by Guyana’s continued oil expansion. The World Bank projects 5.7% growth for the broader Caribbean economies. However, when Guyana is excluded, growth across the rest of the subregion is expected to slow sharply to approximately 1.7%, underscoring the region’s structural vulnerabilities.
Guyana is projected to remain the fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean, with the World Bank forecasting 15.7% GDP growth in 2026, fueled by sustained investment in hydrocarbons. By contrast, several tourism-dependent economies face more moderate or fragile trajectories. The Bahamas is expected to experience slower growth amid relatively stagnant stayover tourism, while Jamaica may face economic contraction in early 2026 following the impact of Hurricane Melissa on tourism and agriculture.
ECLAC
ECLAC warns that the region remains highly exposed to external shocks, including slower U.S. economic growth, rising energy and transportation costs, high public debt levels, and increasing climate-related risks. While service exports are expected to remain resilient, uncertainty in global trade, commodity price volatility, and delayed interest rate cuts by major central banks pose downside risks.
The outlook reinforces the need for Caribbean economies to diversify beyond tourism, strengthen resilience, and expand into higher-value sectors such as energy, logistics, food security, and digitally delivered services.
Projected GDP Growth Rates for Selected Caribbean Economies (2026–2027)
Ranked from Highest to Lowest (2026)
| Rank | Country | 2026 Growth (%) | 2027 Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 23.0 | 24.3 |
| 2 | Dominican Republic | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 3 | Dominica | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| 4 | Grenada | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Suriname | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 6 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 7 | St. Lucia | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Barbados | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 9 | Jamaica | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| 11 | Bahamas | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 12 | Belize | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Source: World Bank
In the Caribbean, growth is forecast at 5.8% in 2026, led overwhelmingly by Guyana’s oil sector expansion. Excluding Guyana, regional growth is expected to slow to approximately 3.1% in 2026, highlighting the increasing divergence between resource-driven economies and tourism-dependent states.
Felicia J. Persaud, CEO of Invest Caribbean, reacting to the World Bank’s Global Economic forecast data, said: “The time to invest in the Caribbean is now – and the data clearly supports it. For too long, the region has been underestimated. The numbers show a Caribbean that is resilient, investable, and increasingly central to global growth and capital flows.”
