News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Fri. Mar. 29, 2019: Just when you were beginning to get EXCITED about 2020 …
Along comes Politico to CRUSH your dreams …
Well most of my readers’ dreams anyway.
A very few are JUMPING for JOY.
They are outliers who appreciate great journalism no matter what, even if Donald Trump has seduced them to the Dark Side. You know who you are!
Everyone else RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! DISASTER is coming …
According to Politico with this BREAKING story last week …
TRUMP IS ON TRACK FOR A 2020 LANDSLIDE!!!!
Believe it or not … that is where I come in with my new episode.
Let’s go straight to my new media partner Politico and their story …
WARNING – do not read further if you suffer from a medical issue.
“Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020. But a faltering economy or giant scandal could change everything.”
Wishful thinking …. Forget about “scandal” after Mueller’s report.
Here comes more from Politico. ….
“President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.”
Yes, facts hurt a lot I know!! Here is still more …
“Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent Presidents. While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will.”
ENCORE … “Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating.” Politico is far from done making its point …
“Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — ‘the economy, stupid’— holds true in 2020. “The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
I am not holding back. I don’t do that. There is more …
“Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency.”
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote.”
There is so much here but I don’t want to scare my readers out of their wits, which they have in abundance. Let me just add this from Politico…
“Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and a regular Trump critic, has been road-testing a dozen different economic models for the 2020 race. At this point, Trump wins in all 12 — and quite comfortably in most of them. The Moody’s models look at economic trends at the state level.”
“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi said. “In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.” The Moody’s models look at economic trends at the state level and incorporate some political variables including a president’s approval rating.”
ENOUGH! I do not want responsibility for anyone’s cardiac ARREST.
The other reason is I have something to say. It is my Commentary. Also, all of this so far is not the REAL story of this week’s episode.
The fact is Trump is so historically BAD, arguably the WORST President in all of American history, and although he has some very bad competition for that “distinction” – Donald J. Trump should lose no matter how good the economy and no matter what all the computer programs reveal.
SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM????? Easy too easy answer.
Democrats themselves are the PROBLEM. And their media supporters.
The problem for Democrats is two-fold. Either is fatal for 2020.
Even after The Mueller Report, so-called Democratic Party leaders are unwilling and/or unable to give up their mindless boundless HATRED of Donald Trump – trying even to find Trump crimes between the lines in Mueller’s Report and that Trump was the Russians Manchurian candidate.
I hope all my readers understand the reference? If not, please look it up later.
So what is the Democrats agenda in Congress now? Move on tackle real issues? NO, NO, NO. Of course not.
Pelosi, Schumer, Nadler and all the rest want to intensify their own investigations of Trump. Find out if Mueller may also be working for the Russians!! That must be the answer Nadler!
How about the countless Democratic candidates for President?
Are they saying STOP the nonsense – let’s beat Trump on the merits; END all these absurd investigations of Trump, his family, and anyone Trump has ever met?
All the Democratic candidates are AFRAID to “offend” the so-called Party leaders even more maybe CNN and all the Trump all the time broadcasters.
The point is Trump is likely to win not because of the economy, or his style or his base or his mindless policies, it is Democratic Party WEAKNESS and lack of REAL leadership that is Trump’s BIG advantage.
The most concise way to describe the Democrats fatal flaw is the same reason Trump won in 2016 – the lack of a comprehensive Democratic VISION for the future of America that voters want for themselves and the nation.
Even Kamala Harris who has some serious potential as the possible 2020 Democratic challenger against Trump, finally came out with her first key proposal and it was EMBARRASSING – it was so simplistic and completely unrealistic and bad for more reasons than I can list here.
“President Harris says she will find the funds to DOUBLE the salary of every school teacher in America, raising major new taxes on the Rich for this purpose alone. Embarrassing for a potential President. All she is doing is pandering and trolling for primary votes with a proposal no one believes, including anyone who deserves to be a teacher.
I will conclude with the only good news available at this point. Most Presidential Primaries are still a year away. At least we still have Hope!.
(This series dedicated in honor of the late Liu Xiaobo & Jamal Khashoggi)